Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.19 – 247.58

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.3 ±12.7

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 40.32Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -17.42Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 64.29Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±14

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 171.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 98.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -23.21Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 10221, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 10221, 9038

Auto

25.0 27%

Teleop

37.8 41%

Endgame

30.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 972, 8852, 5027

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 972, 8852, 5027

Auto

41.7 17%

Teleop

158.5 65%

Endgame

45.5 19%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score247.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.4
Score range: 57–278
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.3Season APEX410

25Auto41.7

37.8Teleop158.5

30.1Endgame45.5

86Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	41	185
endgame	7	41
foul	0	0
total	60	246

Result

Final score

60 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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