Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.49 – 78.14

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.9 ±11.7

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 55.6Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 183.65Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 52.24Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.5 ±14.4

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX -1.18Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 7.71Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 71.61Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4669, 3256, 4904

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4669, 3256, 4904

Auto

79.3 27%

Teleop

167.3 58%

Endgame

43.4 15%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10500, 4255, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10500, 4255, 2204

Auto

11.1 15%

Teleop

35.2 47%

Endgame

29.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291.5pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.4
Score range: 48–321
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 169.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.9Season APEX223.5

79.3Auto11.1

167.3Teleop35.2

43.4Endgame29.1

86Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	19
teleop	104	31
endgame	58	20
foul	10	0
total	218	70

Result

Final score

218 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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