Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.87 – 140.38

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±15.8

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 29.04Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 4.67Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 11.16Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.6 ±12.1

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 49.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 77.35Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 13.77Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7245, 4973, 10500

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7245, 4973, 10500

Auto

7.6 18%

Teleop

15.2 36%

Endgame

19.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2473, 5499, 4255

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 5499, 4255

Auto

26.1 20%

Teleop

78.1 58%

Endgame

29.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score140.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.5
Score range: 11–174
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.1Season APEX203.6

7.6Auto26.1

15.2Teleop78.1

19.4Endgame29.5

14Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	7
teleop	13	66
endgame	6	5
foul	0	0
total	34	78

Result

Final score

34 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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