Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.1 – 205.57

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.1 ±11.7

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -16.14Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 41.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 149.13Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331 ±11

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 61.41Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 42.61Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 101.55Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10372, 2473, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 2473, 4698

Auto

40.3 26%

Teleop

89.3 57%

Endgame

26.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5419, 1700, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 1700, 9400

Auto

45.6 23%

Teleop

86.6 44%

Endgame

64.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.1pts

Blue projected score205.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.5
Score range: 144–236
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.1Season APEX331

40.3Auto45.6

89.3Teleop86.6

26.7Endgame64.3

39Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	37
teleop	59	118
endgame	81	89
foul	5	0
total	216	244

Result

Final score

216 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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