Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.31 – 158.77

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.5 ±12.8

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 58.75Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 10.77Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 5.79Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.3 ±11.6

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 44.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 82.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 30.99Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 199, 10339, 8045

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 199, 10339, 8045

Auto

9.6 14%

Teleop

17.8 26%

Endgame

40.3 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1854, 6418, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1854, 6418, 5171

Auto

38.8 24%

Teleop

94.2 59%

Endgame

26.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.3pts

Blue projected score158.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.5
Score range: 44–190
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 170.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.5Season APEX296.3

9.6Auto38.8

17.8Teleop94.2

40.3Endgame26.4

79Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	60
teleop	2	126
endgame	12	45
foul	0	0
total	30	231

Result

Final score

30 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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