Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.38 – 383.77

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.1 ±15.3

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 104.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 7.11Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 41.49Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518 ±11.2

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 41.86Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 167.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 173.93Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8852, 10500, 4186

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8852, 10500, 4186

Auto

27.2 17%

Teleop

90.6 57%

Endgame

40.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9111, 972, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9111, 972, 6962

Auto

60.3 16%

Teleop

237.6 62%

Endgame

83.9 22%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.4pts

Blue projected score383.8pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -230.4
Score range: 123–414
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 168.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.1Season APEX518

27.2Auto60.3

90.6Teleop237.6

40.2Endgame83.9

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	69
teleop	47	276
endgame	21	100
foul	15	0
total	94	445

Result

Final score

94 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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