Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
48.05 – 92.82
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
80 – 77
Prediction missed · off by 23.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.1 ±11.6
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 32.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 10.63Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 4.47Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.3 ±14.9
Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -17.21Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 5.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 104.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10281, 6814, 4255
29
/ 100 compatProjected
48.1 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 10281, 6814, 4255
Auto
1.9 4%
Teleop
21.5 40%
Endgame
29.7 56%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5027, 10615, 9400
41
/ 100 compatProjected
92.8 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 5027, 10615, 9400
Auto
14.5 16%
Teleop
36.3 39%
Endgame
42.1 45%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.87
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score48.1pts
Blue projected score92.8pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -44.8
- Score range
- 17–124
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
183.1Season APEX263.3
1.9Auto14.5
21.5Teleop36.3
29.7Endgame42.1
157Consistency87
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 16 |
| teleop | 36 | 53 |
| endgame | 31 | 8 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 80 | 77 |
Result
Final score
80 – 77
Prediction missed · off by 23.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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