Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.77 – 158.14

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 92.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.2 ±11.7

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 41.71Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 59.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 196.98Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±11.7

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.36Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 127.2Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 5.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11274, 5499, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11274, 5499, 3256

Auto

68.2 22%

Teleop

192.4 63%

Endgame

46.0 15%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1700, 4698, 11230

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 4698, 11230

Auto

53.1 36%

Teleop

65.7 44%

Endgame

29.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score297.8pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.6
Score range: 128–328
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.2Season APEX407.4

68.2Auto53.1

192.4Teleop65.7

46Endgame29.4

35Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	66
teleop	164	144
endgame	12	26
foul	0	60
total	250	296

Result

Final score

250 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 92.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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