Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.66 – 125.28

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.1 ±12.8

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 21.75Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 41.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 87.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.3 ±13.3

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 41.16Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 48.1Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 36.02Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6918, 2551, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 2551, 6418

Auto

34.1 21%

Teleop

100.4 63%

Endgame

25.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7245, 4669, 5171

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7245, 4669, 5171

Auto

27.3 23%

Teleop

74.1 61%

Endgame

19.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.7pts

Blue projected score125.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.4
Score range: 95–181
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 168.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.1Season APEX175.3

34.1Auto27.3

100.4Teleop74.1

25.1Endgame19.8

59Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	96	76
endgame	18	49
foul	0	15
total	138	158

Result

Final score

138 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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