Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.58 – 155.03

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.5 ±12.8

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 46.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 10.36Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 52.51Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±13.3

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 26.8Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 77.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 50.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4186, 8045, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 8045, 192

Auto

15.6 15%

Teleop

50.1 47%

Endgame

41.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4973, 9038, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4973, 9038, 10644

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

79.8 52%

Endgame

36.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.6pts

Blue projected score155pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.4
Score range: 79–186
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 170.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.5Season APEX174.2

15.6Auto38

50.1Teleop79.8

41.2Endgame36.7

8Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	56	42
endgame	16	10
foul	0	0
total	86	67

Result

Final score

86 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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