Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.64 – 250.06

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±12.2

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 54.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 36.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -26.9Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.4 ±11

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 9.31Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 38.7Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 202.05Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5419, 4904, 10372

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5419, 4904, 10372

Auto

25.9 40%

Teleop

26.1 40%

Endgame

13.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 1854, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 1854, 841

Auto

29.2 12%

Teleop

144.2 60%

Endgame

65.9 28%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.6pts

Blue projected score250.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -186.4
Score range: 33–281
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.9Season APEX392.4

25.9Auto29.2

26.1Teleop144.2

13.2Endgame65.9

68Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	20
teleop	28	170
endgame	34	83
foul	15	0
total	130	273

Result

Final score

130 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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