Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.39 – 176

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.5 ±12.2

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 168.01Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -16.83Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 33.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.1 ±12.8

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 41.91Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 59.68Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 74.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 10221, 2473

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6962, 10221, 2473

Auto

25.9 14%

Teleop

118.3 65%

Endgame

38.2 21%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9111, 199, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9111, 199, 2204

Auto

18.1 11%

Teleop

104.9 62%

Endgame

45.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.4pts

Blue projected score176pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 146–214
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 169.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.5Season APEX290.1

25.9Auto18.1

118.3Teleop104.9

38.2Endgame45

38Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	24
teleop	128	70
endgame	43	56
foul	0	15
total	208	165

Result

Final score

208 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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