Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.17 – 106.11

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.6 ±12.7

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 67.59Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 39.99Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 60.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.5 ±12.8

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -8.49Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 86.67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 27.93Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5171, 9111, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5171, 9111, 9038

Auto

46.9 29%

Teleop

77.2 48%

Endgame

37.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10372, 9400, 11274

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10372, 9400, 11274

Auto

26.5 25%

Teleop

49.9 48%

Endgame

27.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.2pts

Blue projected score106.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.1
Score range: 72–202
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.6Season APEX292.5

46.9Auto26.5

77.2Teleop49.9

37.4Endgame27.8

47Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	15
teleop	100	40
endgame	8	30
foul	0	0
total	164	85

Result

Final score

164 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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