Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.58 – 102.46

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.5 ±13.3

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 16.01Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 18.41Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 55.16Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.6 ±14.4

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 17.21Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 30.31Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 54.94Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4255, 8045, 2551

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4255, 8045, 2551

Auto

17.8 20%

Teleop

34.3 39%

Endgame

36.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10500, 10281, 192

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10500, 10281, 192

Auto

12.4 12%

Teleop

31.1 29%

Endgame

63.1 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.6pts

Blue projected score102.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.9
Score range: 59–133
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 171.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.5Season APEX241.6

17.8Auto12.4

34.3Teleop31.1

36.7Endgame63.1

74Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	12
teleop	6	57
endgame	1	26
foul	0	0
total	21	95

Result

Final score

21 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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