Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.34 – 87.96

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.7 ±13.9

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 60.81Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -22.82Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 49.35Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.2 ±12.7

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 18.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 22.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 46.87Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10644, 10372, 4186

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10644, 10372, 4186

Auto

7.5 9%

Teleop

51.0 58%

Endgame

28.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4904, 7245, 5499

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4904, 7245, 5499

Auto

33.3 37%

Teleop

51.8 58%

Endgame

4.3 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.3pts

Blue projected score88pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 56–119
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.7Season APEX207.2

7.5Auto33.3

51Teleop51.8

28.9Endgame4.3

44Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	28
teleop	48	128
endgame	10	27
foul	0	0
total	69	183

Result

Final score

69 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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