Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.04 – 178.79

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±13.9

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 41.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 63Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -17.18Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.4 ±11

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 21.21Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 71.8Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 85.78Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11274, 199, 10221

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11274, 199, 10221

Auto

15.7 18%

Teleop

31.8 37%

Endgame

37.7 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 2204, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 2204, 9038

Auto

47.1 27%

Teleop

87.1 50%

Endgame

39.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87pts

Blue projected score178.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.7
Score range: 56–210
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.8Season APEX288.4

15.7Auto47.1

31.8Teleop87.1

37.7Endgame39.5

93Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	46	79
endgame	14	34
foul	0	15
total	79	145

Result

Final score

79 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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