Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.8 – 226.95

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.6 ±11.7

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 20.85Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 191.41Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 56.54Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±14.9

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 7.41Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 28.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 190.61Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6918, 841, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6918, 841, 5419

Auto

52.0 19%

Teleop

155.2 58%

Endgame

61.1 23%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5027, 11230, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

227 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5027, 11230, 6962

Auto

24.7 11%

Teleop

154.1 69%

Endgame

44.1 20%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.8pts

Blue projected score227pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.9
Score range: 196–300
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 172.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.6Season APEX272.3

52Auto24.7

155.2Teleop154.1

61.1Endgame44.1

45Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	18
teleop	149	50
endgame	93	15
foul	0	0
total	267	83

Result

Final score

267 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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