Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.41 – 305.92

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 103.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±12.1

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX -1.45Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 16.83Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 4.03Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.9 ±11.7

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 66.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 193.65Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 45.4Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1700, 5171, 4255

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1700, 5171, 4255

Auto

18.0 84%

Teleop

14.0 65%

Endgame

-10.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4186, 972, 1854

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 972, 1854

Auto

43.6 14%

Teleop

190.4 62%

Endgame

72.2 24%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.4pts

Blue projected score305.9pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -286.5
Score range: -12–337
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 172.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.3Season APEX381.9

18Auto43.6

14Teleop190.4

-10.6Endgame72.2

67Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	37
teleop	44	106
endgame	60	70
foul	0	0
total	133	213

Result

Final score

133 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 103.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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