Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.76 – 92.86

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 38.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.9 ±14

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 50.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 115.67Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 26.01Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.8 ±13.3

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -5.37Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 66.69Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 31.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5499, 4698, 10500

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5499, 4698, 10500

Auto

30.6 16%

Teleop

109.6 58%

Endgame

48.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10221, 2551, 4904

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10221, 2551, 4904

Auto

41.7 44%

Teleop

38.5 40%

Endgame

15.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.8pts

Blue projected score92.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.9
Score range: 62–223
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 174.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.9Season APEX164.8

30.6Auto41.7

109.6Teleop38.5

48.7Endgame15

38Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	14
teleop	71	0
endgame	73	11
foul	0	0
total	200	25

Result

Final score

200 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 38.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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