Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.37 – 214.39

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.8 ±13.3

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 11.96Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 4.97Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 26.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.5 ±13.3

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 17.62Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 78.63Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 118.14Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10281, 10615, 9111

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10281, 10615, 9111

Auto

12.0 29%

Teleop

25.8 61%

Endgame

4.2 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4973, 199, 8852

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4973, 199, 8852

Auto

33.9 16%

Teleop

131.3 62%

Endgame

46.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.4pts

Blue projected score214.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171
Score range: 11–246
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.8Season APEX273.5

12Auto33.9

25.8Teleop131.3

4.2Endgame46

115Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	21
teleop	48	91
endgame	44	45
foul	0	5
total	107	162

Result

Final score

107 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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