Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.32 – 275.06

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±12.8

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 55.3Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 17.08Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 33.94Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.2 ±12.2

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 74.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 175.75Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 24.56Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10644, 10339, 4669

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10644, 10339, 4669

Auto

23.6 23%

Teleop

42.4 42%

Endgame

35.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9038, 6962, 11274

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9038, 6962, 11274

Auto

50.3 18%

Teleop

170.4 62%

Endgame

53.5 20%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.3pts

Blue projected score275.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.7
Score range: 75–306
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 174.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.8Season APEX315.2

23.6Auto50.3

42.4Teleop170.4

35.5Endgame53.5

82Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	62
teleop	45	189
endgame	31	86
foul	10	0
total	102	337

Result

Final score

102 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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