Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.35 – 189.82

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.7 ±12.7

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 38.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.87Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 13.42Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.6 ±13.3

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 41.05Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6918Napa Cellar Rats

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 38.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8852Drew Robotics

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 110.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1854, 1700, 10615

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1854, 1700, 10615

Auto

19.2 28%

Teleop

27.2 40%

Endgame

21.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4669, 6918, 8852

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4669, 6918, 8852

Auto

37.3 20%

Teleop

115.9 64%

Endgame

29.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score189.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: 38–224
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.7Season APEX287.6

19.2Auto37.3

27.2Teleop115.9

21.2Endgame29

9Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	49
teleop	23	137
endgame	26	34
foul	0	0
total	62	220

Result

Final score

62 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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