Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.58 – 202.56

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.5 ±10.4

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 71.5Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 1.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 85.01Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.9 ±12.2

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 183.05Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 21.91Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1700Gatorbotics

Season APEX 69Event APEX -2.4Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2204, 6814, 6418

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2204, 6814, 6418

Auto

37.0 23%

Teleop

111.9 70%

Endgame

10.5 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 841, 8045, 1700

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 841, 8045, 1700

Auto

32.0 17%

Teleop

104.1 54%

Endgame

56.9 29%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.6pts

Blue projected score202.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45
Score range: 127–234
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 170.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.5Season APEX348.9

37Auto32

111.9Teleop104.1

10.5Endgame56.9

85Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	99	126
endgame	50	79
foul	0	5
total	168	249

Result

Final score

168 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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