Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.13 – 392.08

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.3 ±12.1

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 70.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 49.15Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX -4.03Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.1 ±9.3

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 135.71Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 61.7Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 194.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9038, 1854, 4255

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9038, 1854, 4255

Auto

26.5 22%

Teleop

62.3 52%

Endgame

31.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4698, 5419, 3256

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4698, 5419, 3256

Auto

81.8 21%

Teleop

224.1 58%

Endgame

82.0 21%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.1pts

Blue projected score392.1pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -276.9
Score range: 84–423
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 170.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.3Season APEX664.1

26.5Auto81.8

62.3Teleop224.1

31.1Endgame82

148Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	99
teleop	63	186
endgame	33	51
foul	0	0
total	134	336

Result

Final score

134 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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