Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.83 – 126.7

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355 ±12.8

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 68.82Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10615Spartan110

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 17.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 183.43Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±11.7

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 89.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -20.13Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 57.8Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2551, 10615, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2551, 10615, 841

Auto

22.3 8%

Teleop

137.4 52%

Endgame

106.3 40%

Strengths

· 841 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9400, 10221, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 10221, 2204

Auto

28.4 22%

Teleop

56.7 44%

Endgame

43.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.8pts

Blue projected score126.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.1
Score range: 97–300
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 167.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355Season APEX311.8

22.3Auto28.4

137.4Teleop56.7

106.3Endgame43.9

125Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	41
teleop	177	103
endgame	44	58
foul	0	0
total	264	202

Result

Final score

264 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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