Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.88 – 233.76

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.8 ±14.9

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 21.32Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 38.8Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -4.24Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.7 ±11.1

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 32.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 31.8Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 169.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4973, 10339, 5027

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4973, 10339, 5027

Auto

14.2 25%

Teleop

25.3 44%

Endgame

17.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2473, 5171, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 5171, 972

Auto

42.2 18%

Teleop

138.0 60%

Endgame

48.6 21%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score233.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -177.9
Score range: 26–264
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 169.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.8Season APEX363.7

14.2Auto42.2

25.3Teleop138

17.6Endgame48.6

54Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	41
teleop	15	159
endgame	14	38
foul	15	5
total	52	243

Result

Final score

52 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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