Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.81 – 72.7

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±12.8

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 49.91Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 43.53Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5419Berkelium

Season APEX 98.9Event APEX 57.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210 ±14.4

10500Lodestar

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 34.49Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 29.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 8.45Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4186, 11274, 5419

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4186, 11274, 5419

Auto

32.2 21%

Teleop

88.0 58%

Endgame

31.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10500, 4904, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10500, 4904, 6814

Auto

4.5 6%

Teleop

31.4 45%

Endgame

34.5 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.8pts

Blue projected score72.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.1
Score range: 42–182
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 174.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.6Season APEX210

32.2Auto4.5

88Teleop31.4

31.3Endgame34.5

0Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	28
teleop	89	23
endgame	43	21
foul	0	0
total	166	72

Result

Final score

166 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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