Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.65 – 426.9

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±12.8

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 25.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 44.03Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10221#1 Sea Bass

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 7.97Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.3 ±9.8

3256WarriorBorgs

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 195.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 59.44Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 172.28Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6814, 4186, 10221

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6814, 4186, 10221

Auto

8.9 12%

Teleop

38.7 50%

Endgame

29.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3256, 2204, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3256, 2204, 6962

Auto

82.3 19%

Teleop

259.6 60%

Endgame

91.6 21%

Strengths

· 3256 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score426.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -349.2
Score range: 44–461
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.6Season APEX580.3

8.9Auto82.3

38.7Teleop259.6

29.6Endgame91.6

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	93
teleop	13	348
endgame	19	66
foul	0	0
total	44	507

Result

Final score

44 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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