Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.11 – 113.61

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.2 ±11.2

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 65.37Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 16.6Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 160.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±12.2

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 72.55Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5171Deus Ex Machina

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 49.02Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10372THE ANTS

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -7.96Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 192, 4973, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 192, 4973, 972

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

138.0 58%

Endgame

57.0 24%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2204, 5171, 10372

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2204, 5171, 10372

Auto

34.5 31%

Teleop

81.0 72%

Endgame

-3.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.1pts

Blue projected score113.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.5
Score range: 83–273
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.2Season APEX259.9

42.5Auto34.5

138Teleop81

57Endgame-3.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	14
teleop	158	8
endgame	69	6
foul	0	0
total	282	28

Result

Final score

282 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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