Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.66 – 106.88

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.6 ±12.2

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 195.7Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 56.63Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1854The Chomp Bots

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 46.33Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.4 ±12.7

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 37.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2551Penguin Empire

Season APEX 60.6Event APEX 75.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10281MechaWolves

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -5.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6962, 10644, 1854

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6962, 10644, 1854

Auto

26.8 9%

Teleop

182.7 61%

Endgame

89.3 30%

Strengths

· 6962 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2473, 2551, 10281

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 2551, 10281

Auto

6.3 6%

Teleop

59.0 55%

Endgame

42.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.7pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191.8
Score range: 77–329
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.6Season APEX181.4

26.8Auto6.3

182.7Teleop59

89.3Endgame42.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	12
teleop	184	51
endgame	59	44
foul	0	0
total	284	107

Result

Final score

284 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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