Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.19 – 135.14

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±13.3

4669Galileo Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 52.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 82.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11230White Hat Hackers

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 39.3Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.3 ±12.2

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 29.24Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5499Bearium

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 42.43Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 63.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4669, 9038, 11230

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4669, 9038, 11230

Auto

46.5 27%

Teleop

101.2 58%

Endgame

25.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8045, 5499, 9400

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8045, 5499, 9400

Auto

16.0 12%

Teleop

66.8 49%

Endgame

53.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.2pts

Blue projected score135.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.1
Score range: 105–204
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 169.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.9Season APEX317.3

46.5Auto16

101.2Teleop66.8

25.5Endgame53.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	29
teleop	41	86
endgame	28	74
foul	0	0
total	107	189

Result

Final score

107 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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