Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
172.42 – 107.62
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
107 – 22
Prediction correct · off by 75.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.3 ±12.4
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 11.18Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38.8Event APEX -2.16Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 283Event APEX 163.4Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±15.3
Season APEX 69Event APEX 39.25Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 28.7Event APEX 19.84Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 48.53Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10615, 10221, 4698
69
/ 100 compatProjected
172.4 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 10615, 10221, 4698
Auto
39.2 23%
Teleop
94.2 56%
Endgame
35.9 21%
Strengths
- · 4698 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1700, 5027, 4186
51
/ 100 compatProjected
107.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 1700, 5027, 4186
Auto
13.6 12%
Teleop
55.5 51%
Endgame
40.0 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score172.4pts
Blue projected score107.6pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 64.8
- Score range
- 76–204
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
393.3Season APEX184.6
39.2Auto13.6
94.2Teleop55.5
35.9Endgame40
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 7 |
| teleop | 34 | 9 |
| endgame | 35 | 6 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 107 | 22 |
Result
Final score
107 – 22
Prediction correct · off by 75.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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