Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
3.23 – 44.32
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
166 – 87
Prediction missed · off by 102.7 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 1.73Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.9Event APEX -3.75Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 5.25Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.7 ±12.7
Season APEX 57Event APEX 6.7Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 1.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 35.89Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11230, 5419, 5499
8
/ 100 compatProjected
3.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 11230, 5419, 5499
Auto
8.5 100%
Teleop
0.0 0%
Endgame
-5.8 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8045, 10281, 5171
22
/ 100 compatProjected
44.3 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 8045, 10281, 5171
Auto
22.6 51%
Teleop
28.6 65%
Endgame
-7.1 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.81
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score3.2pts
Blue projected score44.3pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41.1
- Score range
- -28–75
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
251.5Season APEX190.7
8.5Auto22.6
0Teleop28.6
-5.8Endgame-7.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 21 |
| teleop | 80 | 28 |
| endgame | 42 | 38 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 166 | 87 |
Result
Final score
166 – 87
Prediction missed · off by 102.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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