Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.46 – 175.42

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.8 ±11.7

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 24.29Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4973Gator Gears

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 9.71Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6814Ellipse

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 14.46Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.7 ±11.2

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 12Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7245LionBot Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 9.71Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 153.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 4973, 6814

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 4973, 6814

Auto

11.7 24%

Teleop

22.0 45%

Endgame

14.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 7245, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 7245, 972

Auto

34.3 20%

Teleop

104.9 61%

Endgame

32.0 19%

Strengths

· 972 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.5pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127
Score range: 18–205
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 167.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.8Season APEX378.7

11.7Auto34.3

22Teleop104.9

14.7Endgame32

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	37
teleop	73	119
endgame	56	78
foul	0	5
total	144	239

Result

Final score

144 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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