Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.85 – 154.62

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±14.9

6418The Missfits

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 97.56Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5027Event Horizon (5027)

Season APEX 28.7Event APEX -9.05Rank 39Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8045The Wallace Dynasty

Season APEX 57Event APEX 2.34Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.2 ±12.2

4904Bot-Provoking

Season APEX 65.4Event APEX 45.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

192GRT

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 64.68Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10644West Coast Warriors

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 44.4Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6418, 5027, 8045

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6418, 5027, 8045

Auto

19.2 22%

Teleop

55.2 63%

Endgame

13.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4904, 192, 10644

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4904, 192, 10644

Auto

29.7 20%

Teleop

77.8 51%

Endgame

43.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.9pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.8
Score range: 57–189
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 190.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.4Season APEX237.2

19.2Auto29.7

55.2Teleop77.8

13.3Endgame43.6

69Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	28
teleop	45	65
endgame	24	49
foul	0	0
total	93	142

Result

Final score

93 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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