Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.1 – 174.55

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.4 ±10.4

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 43.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 69.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 66.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.1 ±11.6

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 39.33Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 107.44Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 27.78Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3925, 766, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 766, 114

Auto

30.9 19%

Teleop

93.9 56%

Endgame

42.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 100, 840, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 840, 6657

Auto

35.6 21%

Teleop

85.7 52%

Endgame

44.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.1pts

Blue projected score174.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.5
Score range: 132–222
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 239.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.4Season APEX295.1

30.9Auto35.6

93.9Teleop85.7

42.2Endgame44.8

41Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	23
teleop	91	21
endgame	23	11
foul	5	0
total	174	55

Result

Final score

174 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Match videos

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