Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.29 – 123.94

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

519 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.9 ±9.8

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 124.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 180.7Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 36.35Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.4 ±11.6

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -3.04Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 62.17Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 64.81Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3970, 973, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 973, 6305

Auto

69.7 22%

Teleop

158.4 49%

Endgame

93.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8768, 9584, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8768, 9584, 8793

Auto

14.9 12%

Teleop

67.4 55%

Endgame

41.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score341.3pts

Blue projected score123.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.4
Score range: 81–384
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 238.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.9Season APEX285.4

69.7Auto14.9

158.4Teleop67.4

93.5Endgame41

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	18
teleop	330	0
endgame	105	0
foul	0	0
total	519	18

Result

Final score

519 – 18

Prediction correct · off by 141.8 pts

Match videos

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