Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.57 – 154.04

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.4 ±11.2

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 32.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 65.42Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 46.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.4 ±10.4

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 37.12Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 59.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 57.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5700, 971, 4765

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5700, 971, 4765

Auto

37.7 27%

Teleop

81.4 58%

Endgame

22.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 766, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 766, 114

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

82.2 61%

Endgame

24.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.6pts

Blue projected score154pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 101–197
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 239.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.4Season APEX369.4

37.7Auto28.4

81.4Teleop82.2

22.4Endgame24.7

14Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	44
teleop	59	100
endgame	39	46
foul	0	0
total	130	190

Result

Final score

130 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Match videos

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