Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.21 – 185.39

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.9 ±9.8

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 135.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 193.67Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 46.88Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.4 ±10.4

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 45.47Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 71.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 68.67Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3970, 973, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 973, 6305

Auto

74.1 20%

Teleop

201.6 55%

Endgame

89.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 766, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 766, 114

Auto

35.3 20%

Teleop

97.4 55%

Endgame

43.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score376.2pts

Blue projected score185.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 190.8
Score range: 142–419
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 241.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.9Season APEX369.4

74.1Auto35.3

201.6Teleop97.4

89.2Endgame43

15Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	40
teleop	182	60
endgame	42	37
foul	25	10
total	324	147

Result

Final score

324 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Match videos

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