Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

677.89 – 383.42

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

752 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 891.7 ±9.9

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 317.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 19.94Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 340.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.9 ±9.8

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 137.94Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 196.12Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 49.36Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1323, 2367, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

677.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1323, 2367, 254

Auto

118.6 18%

Teleop

401.3 60%

Endgame

147.0 22%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3970, 973, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 973, 6305

Auto

76.7 21%

Teleop

203.0 55%

Endgame

90.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score677.9pts

Blue projected score383.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 294.5
Score range: 340–721
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1083 vs event baseline 237.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

891.7Season APEX609.9

118.6Auto76.7

401.3Teleop203

147Endgame90.9

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	60
teleop	453	191
endgame	153	80
foul	5	0
total	752	331

Result

Final score

752 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 pts

Match videos

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