Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.93 – 152.21

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±11

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 3.57Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 119.79Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 121.57Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.4 ±11.2

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 37.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 64.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 50.15Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6822, 1388, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6822, 1388, 5817

Auto

56.9 24%

Teleop

130.2 54%

Endgame

53.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5700, 971, 4765

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5700, 971, 4765

Auto

36.9 26%

Teleop

71.9 50%

Endgame

34.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.9pts

Blue projected score152.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.7
Score range: 109–288
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 237.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.8Season APEX458.4

56.9Auto36.9

130.2Teleop71.9

53.9Endgame34.9

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	34
teleop	156	90
endgame	18	72
foul	30	0
total	290	196

Result

Final score

290 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts

Match videos

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