Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
192.98 – 125.86
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
187 – 23
Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 317 ±11.6
Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 82.24Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 18.37Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 92.37Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.8 ±11
Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 78.94Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 105.1Event APEX -8.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 55.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 840, 8768, 100
62
/ 100 compatProjected
193 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 840, 8768, 100
Auto
43.8 23%
Teleop
86.1 46%
Endgame
57.8 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6657, 3925, 5700
49
/ 100 compatProjected
125.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 6657, 3925, 5700
Auto
23.8 20%
Teleop
72.2 59%
Endgame
25.6 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 15%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.28
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score193pts
Blue projected score125.9pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample134alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 67.1
- Score range
- 83–236
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
317Season APEX252.8
43.8Auto23.8
86.1Teleop72.2
57.8Endgame25.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 12 |
| teleop | 109 | 8 |
| endgame | 61 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 187 | 23 |
Result
Final score
187 – 23
Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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