Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.07 – 130.57

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 78.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.2 ±11.6

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 54.56Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 27.95Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 1.56Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.1 ±14.5

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 23.57Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 79.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 27.95Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1388, 9706, 2367

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1388, 9706, 2367

Auto

22.8 31%

Teleop

31.2 43%

Endgame

19.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4643, 971, 4765

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4643, 971, 4765

Auto

22.5 19%

Teleop

79.0 68%

Endgame

14.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.1pts

Blue projected score130.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.5
Score range: 39–176
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 252.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.2Season APEX381.1

22.8Auto22.5

31.2Teleop79

19Endgame14.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	46
teleop	128	31
endgame	17	23
foul	20	0
total	211	100

Result

Final score

211 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 78.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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