Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.72 – 270.03

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±12.2

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 74Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 28.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 13.43Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±10.4

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 182.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 13.43Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 74Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11296, 766, 1351

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11296, 766, 1351

Auto

21.1 19%

Teleop

57.7 52%

Endgame

32.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6305, 1671, 3970

/ 100 compat

Projected

270 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6305, 1671, 3970

Auto

24.5 9%

Teleop

165.6 62%

Endgame

77.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score270pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.3
Score range: 68–318
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 266.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268Season APEX560.6

21.1Auto24.5

57.7Teleop165.6

32.6Endgame77.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	56
teleop	59	96
endgame	43	53
foul	10	5
total	132	210

Result

Final score

132 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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