Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.22 – 490.43

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±11

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 116.44Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 0.28Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 118.5Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 713.5 ±9.8

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 320.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 102.61Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 67.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1388, 6822, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1388, 6822, 5817

Auto

60.5 27%

Teleop

121.7 53%

Endgame

45.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1323, 840, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

490.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1323, 840, 114

Auto

94.4 19%

Teleop

286.3 58%

Endgame

109.4 22%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.2pts

Blue projected score490.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -255.2
Score range: 190–535
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 746 vs event baseline 250.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.8Season APEX713.5

60.5Auto94.4

121.7Teleop286.3

45.5Endgame109.4

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	80
teleop	107	283
endgame	56	141
foul	15	15
total	227	519

Result

Final score

227 – 519

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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