Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.78 – 268.67

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.7 ±9.8

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 132.7Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 71.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 41.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±10.5

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 117.15Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -14.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 165.76Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1388, 971, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1388, 971, 6305

Auto

52.3 21%

Teleop

132.3 54%

Endgame

60.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5817, 8768, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5817, 8768, 973

Auto

59.7 23%

Teleop

143.1 56%

Endgame

51.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score245.8pts

Blue projected score268.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.9
Score range: 203–312
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 666 vs event baseline 237.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.7Season APEX534.9

52.3Auto59.7

132.3Teleop143.1

60.4Endgame51.9

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	105
teleop	104	222
endgame	45	108
foul	20	5
total	226	440

Result

Final score

226 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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