Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.85 – 406.42

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

209 – 550

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.9 ±12.2

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 47.49Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 44.75Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 112.61Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 676.9 ±10.5

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 37.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.36Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 313.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1351, 4765, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 4765, 840

Auto

46.6 22%

Teleop

116.0 55%

Endgame

47.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 9584, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 9584, 254

Auto

82.3 21%

Teleop

212.9 55%

Endgame

93.9 24%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.9pts

Blue projected score406.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -201.6
Score range: 163–448
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 234.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.9Season APEX676.9

46.6Auto82.3

116Teleop212.9

47.5Endgame93.9

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	100
teleop	125	333
endgame	35	112
foul	5	5
total	209	550

Result

Final score

209 – 550

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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