Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.56 – 242.18

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.6 ±9.8

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 70.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 39.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 116.3Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.9 ±10.4

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 65.29Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 115.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 61.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 3925, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 3925, 5817

Auto

48.2 23%

Teleop

128.4 60%

Endgame

37.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 3970, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 3970, 766

Auto

35.5 15%

Teleop

135.3 57%

Endgame

66.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.6pts

Blue projected score242.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.6
Score range: 184–284
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 231.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.6Season APEX445.9

48.2Auto35.5

128.4Teleop135.3

37Endgame66.1

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	37
teleop	196	148
endgame	24	119
foul	5	15
total	264	319

Result

Final score

264 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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