Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.58 – 561.96

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 571

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.3 ±12.7

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 18.41Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 28.8Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -10.63Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 796.5 ±9.8

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 113.24Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 315.27Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 133.45Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11296, 6822, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11296, 6822, 8768

Auto

0.3 1%

Teleop

3.4 11%

Endgame

28.1 88%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 840, 254, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

562 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 840, 254, 1388

Auto

86.4 16%

Teleop

326.7 59%

Endgame

140.4 25%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.6pts

Blue projected score562pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -525.4
Score range: -4–603
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 230.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.3Season APEX796.5

0.3Auto86.4

3.4Teleop326.7

28.1Endgame140.4

8Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	126
teleop	9	310
endgame	6	135
foul	0	0
total	21	571

Result

Final score

21 – 571

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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