Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.76 – 266.85

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±14.4

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 65.85Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 53.34Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -24.43Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.2 ±9.8

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 46.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 49.41Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 171.36Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1671, 100, 4643

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1671, 100, 4643

Auto

36.8 42%

Teleop

34.2 39%

Endgame

17.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 6305, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 6305, 973

Auto

67.9 27%

Teleop

115.1 46%

Endgame

67.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.8pts

Blue projected score266.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.1
Score range: 53–309
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 232.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.8Season APEX562.2

36.8Auto67.9

34.2Teleop115.1

17.1Endgame67

7Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	72
teleop	34	103
endgame	14	18
foul	10	15
total	74	208

Result

Final score

74 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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